In 10 years, will cash exist?

Will money remain the domain of governments, or will there be a rise of international currencies? What role will institutions and technology play in determining access to money? How will the rise of new currencies shift how we trade and do business? How will we hinder illicit trade? How will technological platforms impact how we promote financial inclusion? What does the rise in digital currencies mean for our ability to reach net zero?

Understanding how technology might change the landscape in which FCDO operates plays an important role in making sure the FCDO is prepared for these changes. Over two months, we worked with the FCDO’s Technology and Innovation Unit to explore these questions. This learning journey has been developed to share the insights we uncovered with you, so that you can prepare for changing landscapes across the world. You can read more about our process in this article.

Why is this subject important?

Money is rapidly digitising, accelerated by Covid-19 and the rise of e-commerce. New digital currencies (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) have been growing, being created and backed not only by central banks, but also by individuals, communities, and private companies. While some governments welcome cryptocurrencies, like Ukraine where cryptocurrency and other virtual assets are legally accepted, others are exploring centralised versions called Central Bank Digital Currencies. The UK has already built a taskforce to explore what ‘BritCoin’ might look like 👉

Who has access to both digital and traditional money is being shaped by the rise of AI and machine learning, which shifts the deciding factor away from banks and towards technological platforms. Ultimately, decisions are increasingly interconnected to other platforms and data. 

At the individual level, the rise in mobile phones has broadened financial access, but those most marginalised continue to be excluded. In tandem, we see a rise in ways technology increases remittances and allows frictionless flows of money across borders and across currencies.