Drones, UAVs and Democracy: two trends you need to know

UAVs are a lucrative and rapidly growing sector of the aviation industry, increasingly used to sense and transmit data, assist deliveries, and for transport. A 2021 market report estimated the global market for monitoring drones alone would grow to $35.11 billion by 2030.

The sector has been subject to persistent safety and privacy concerns. As noted in the FCDO’s own research, UAVs can easily be mistaken for weapons in conflict zones. Logically, this could inhibit participation in elections, particularly in politically unstable regions. Yet even in representative democracies, their use in monitoring protests can raise concerns about free speech.

Below we will see two emerging trends influencing the drone and UAV sector, and consider the potential impacts that sophisticated surveillance could have on key democratic processes, including voter turnout and the public’s willingness to engage in political debate.

Trend: Saving face

Use of UAVs equipped with facial recognition tech (FRT) is increasing, with both private companies and governments seeking to harness the potential for security, law enforcement, and commercial use.

In 2021, Sharjah’s police force began using drones equipped with FRT to identify suspects among large crowds, according to reports. At a 2022 showcase, Dubai Police also demonstrated its drones capable of detecting criminals from a long distance.

This innovative technology is becoming even more sophisticated over time. In 2021, Fast Company highlighted a US patent filing by AnyVision, an Israeli biometrics startup, which showed it was working to improve photo capture quality. At the 2022 Unmanned Systems Exhibition (UMEX), a UAE-based firm unveiled autonomous drones equipped with FRT, as well as “object detection, vehicle detection, and also automatic licence plate recognition.”

🛰️ Why is this significant?

Free speech is one indicator of a healthy democracy. As Rest of World reported in 2022, surveillance drones are among crackdown methods preferred by authoritarian governments in Southeast Asia; devices with even greater capability to identify faces could be used as a powerful deterrent for political debate.

Trend: Swarm intelligence

Developments in artificial intelligence have led to the advent of drone swarms that can make decisions themselves. Research from Fraunhofer supports this, and explains: “With the help of complex control algorithms, they can learn how to fly like a flock of birds in formation, to avoid obstacles and to pursue targets independently.”

Commercial breakthroughs in this technology have made it more widely available. EDGE and HALCON, a technology company and UAV manufacturer respectively, have partnered on a fleet of strategic drones that can share information in their groups. Unveiled in 2022, the fleet works together to fly in formation, avoid obstacles, and effectively attack targets. 

🛰️ Why is this significant?

In a 2021 white paper on the coming “6G era”, Nokia predicted that “swarms” of drones will be commonplace in the near future. We could therefore see flocks used as a destabilisation tactic around election times, whether they are used simply for surveillance, or to quote EDGE’s press release, as “smart munitions.”

Future impact

Increasing use of AI-powered surveillance UAVs for capturing and analysing data is leading to predictions of an ever-present “Internet of drones” (IoD) environment.

Surveillance drones have been called “dual-use” technologies, as they can be also used variously to repress or safeguard democratic processes. There are therefore two competing opinions on the influence that IoD - and by extension the use cases above - could have on free speech and voter turnout.

During its 2021 election cycle, Puntland temporarily outlawed the deployment of UAVs in certain places, including its airports. In a statement, Puntland’s Minister of Security said that UAVs pose a significant security issue as a reconnaissance device; the fact ports of entry were flagged in its banned areas, suggests that fears over sovereignty were also a factor. There was a similar ban on drones during Guyana’s elections in 2020.

In contrast, UAVs can also be used by governments and political parties to prevent civil disruption. In the 2019 Nigerian elections, which were marred by violence, presidential hopeful Omoyele Sowore accused the country’s military of downing a surveillance drone his party had deployed to monitor unrest. Drones were also used to monitor and discourage campaigning outside polling stations during the 2020 Jordanian general election.

In either case, while the manned aviation sector is strictly regulated, previous research by the FCDO has flagged inconsistencies in the emergent UAV industry. As a way through the thorny “legal and ethical issues” of swarming and AI-infused drones, analysts at Fraunhofer cite “the importance of the interdisciplinary collaboration of science, business and government.”

By virtue of their increasing availability, world nations will struggle to control IoD and the proliferation of commercial drones. Instead, policymakers should continue to work proactively with the industry to set guidelines, particularly where existing regulations are lacking.

N.B. While the term ‘drone’ refers to an uncrewed aircraft that can only be controlled remotely, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can be both controlled remotely and fly autonomously. Drones and UAVs are counted among Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), which can refer to the vehicle as well as its operator, software, systems, and hardware.