Foresighting for Policy Development
How foresight and Futures thinking can be applied to support long-term, evidence-driven policy development.
As governments navigate complex challenges and uncertainties, the need for a proactive and future-oriented approach to policymaking has never been greater.
From March - August 2023 the Futures team collaborated with the Kenya National Innovation Agency (KeNIA) and the East Africa Research and Innovation Hub (British High Commission Nairobi) to undertake a strategic foresight exercise to inform the development of Kenya’s 10-year innovation roadmap.
Together, we convened a team of national experts to support the development of the Innovation Master Plan as a roadmap towards a future vision for Kenya’s innovation sector and inspiration for subsequent policy documents.
What will Kenya’s innovation ecosystem look like in a decade’s time and how does Kenya prepare for that future?
On this page we have shared two resources: a report with detailed reflections on the project with KeNIA, and a guide to using these methods in your own team.
Insights from the technical application of foresighting methods to a policy development process
This resource shares insights from our work with KeNIA, covering questions such as: where are futures methods most appropriate? Where do they have most impact? How do these methods differ from a consultative policy development process?
“The development of the Innovation Master Plan is a hugely ambitious
and far-reaching project that is being led by KeNIA but requires extensive consultation with partners across government (and beyond) as well a perspective that looks beyond the immediate political priorities and ‘buzz’ around innovation that has arisen with the new government, to ensure that the Master Plan is not just responding to the ‘now’ but is also fit for purpose for the future.”
— Emmy Chirchir and Emmeline Skinner
East Africa Research and Innovation Hub, British High Commission, Kenya
How might the process be adapted and replicated?
This guide offers insights, recommendations and considerations for teams looking to design a similar collaboration.
It seeks to answer questions such as:
How did the partnership emerge?
How well did the approach speak to a long-term vision?
What considerations would need to be applied if a similar process were to be undertaken in a different country context?
The role of foresighting methods in…
Policy development
Strengths
Considering long term impacts – looking beyond the present to explore how a policy might play out in future scenarios, fostering sustainable, adaptable solutions
Challenging assumptions – encouraging broader thinking around what is possible, questioning assumptions and considering a wider range of possibilities, leading to more robust and flexible policies
Adaptability and resilience – this approach addresses areas of high uncertainty. to develop policies that are more resilient to future shocks
Engaging Stakeholders – Utilising stakeholder consultation as an evidence base to develop scenarios and drive direction. This fosters public participation, identifies potential issues early on, and builds a broader understanding of the policy's future implications.
Limitations
Uncertainty of predictions – Futures methods explore possibilities but can't predict the future. Policy development requires grounding in present data and trends.
Resource intensive – Effective implementation of Futures methods can be time-consuming and require specific skillsets. This might not be possible across all policy areas or within resource-constrained settings. Guides such as the GO Science Tools for Futures Thinking and Foresight Across UK Government can be useful reference points to encourage Futures thinking without the need to design unique methods.
Potential for bias – The selection of methods can be influenced by existing biases. The success of any method is contingent on stakeholder buy-in in order to realise its full potential.
Supporting evidence-driven policy making
Futures and foresight methods don't directly provide evidence, but they can act as a catalyst for a more robust evidence-driven approach. By highlighting potential futures and their implications, these methods can guide policymakers on where and how to gather evidence to support sound policy decisions:
Identifying data gaps: using primary data gathering methods, such as key informant interviews, to create a space in which to ask people to envision the future, as well as critical issues, concerns and desirable outcomes of that future and practical actions of how it might be brought about, can reveal areas where data is lacking on future trends and potential impacts.
Incorporating qualitative data: conducting stakeholder engagement activities such as workshops and discussions enables policymakers to gather qualitative data on public perceptions, concerns, and potential future needs. This can support policymakers to broaden out the evidence base to inform policy design and identify areas for further quantitative research.
Considering multiple futures: Enlisting methods such as scenario planning can help explore a range of plausible future scenarios, including uncertainties and potential disruptions, which can allow policy makers to design policies that are more adaptable and resilient to change, rather than focusing solely on present and historical trends.
Stress-testing existing evidence: By simulating how policies might fare in different future scenarios, policymakers can identify weaknesses in the evidence base and potential unintended consequences of the policies they are designing.
Contributors
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Dr. Katindi Sivi
Futures and Policy Integration Expert. Foresight curator and systems thinker, catalyzing future smart decision-making processes through foresight research, analysis, and literacy.
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Nora Ndege
Policy researcher for Science, Technology, and Innovation with a focus on innovation for inclusive and sustainable development in Africa.
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Dr Josephine Ojiambo
Stakeholder Engagement Expert with a distinguished public and diplomatic career as Ambassador, and a wide network of local and international resources.
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Emmy Chirchir
Science, Technology, and Innovation Advisor and Cluster Lead, East Africa Research and Innovation Hub, British High Commission Nairobi.
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Emmeline Skinner
Evidence, Innovation, and Inclusion Advisor, East Africa Research and Innovation Hub, British High Commission Nairobi.
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Anna Crawford
Innovation Manager designing Futures explorations on the Frontier Tech Hub.
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Abi Freeman
Innovation Director leading Futures explorations at the Frontier Technology Hub.
Contact
For any questions regarding this work, contact frontiertechhub@dt-global.com
About
This initiative is part of Frontier Tech Futures, which in turn, forms part of the Frontier Tech Hub.
At the Hub, we are a team of strategists, technologists, and international development and innovation experts from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), Results for Development, DT Global and Brink.
We know that the future is uncertain and technology is bringing about rapid change.
We believe that opening the door to questions about the future and exploring them as a team can foster the mindsets, relationships and knowledge to come up with bolder, more imaginative ideas to tackle the gnarliest problems of our time.
Through Futures, we explore trends in frontier technologies.
Through this multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral community, Futures fosters intentional networks that facilitate FCDO thought leadership, action and impact in each theme.
Like the rise of mobile technology and advances in AI, cryptography, and distributed systems to understand how they are transforming how we think about big themes.
We believe that these technologies have the potential to change our lives, and the context in which FCDO seeks to meet its objectives.